Connect with us

Weighted Recruiting Composite

The WRC’s original purpose was to objectively determine if a program is overachieving or underachieving based on their talent level and to also project future success and expectations based on talent.

Here’s how this works in a nutshell. I took the Rivals and 247 Rankings for the past 5 years (2014-2018) and combine them together to get an average ranking between the two services for each year. Then I weighted those averages based on the percentage of each class that typically comprises a two deep:

  • First Year players (FR) count as 10% of the two deep.
  • Second Year players (FR*, SO) count as 22% of the two deep.
  • Third Year players (SO*, JR) count as 23% of the two deep.
  • Fourth Year players (JR*, SR) count as 27% of the two deep.
  • Fifth Year players (SR*, GR) count as 18% of the two deep.

Each average recruiting ranking is weighted based on the percentages above to determine the relative talent level of developed players for each team in any given year.

Elite Programs are in their school colors and the “diff” column is how many spots they moved up or down from last year’s rankings. Analysis below the chart. 



WRC and the Natty

  • A team in the top 4 has won 6 of the last 8 National Championships (Clemson 2016 and 2018 are the outliers).
  • A team in the top 6 in this WRC has won 10 of the past 14 National Championships.
  • From 2006-2018, the average WRC ranking of a National Champion is 5.3.
  • The lowest a National Champion has been ranked is 14th (Clemson 2016 and 2018).
  • The top 3 have won 4 of the last 6 National Championships.
  • The top 7 have won 8 of the last 10 National Championships.
  • The top 14 have won the last 17 National Championships.
  • The top 26 have won the last 28 National Championships.
  • 10 of the top 14 Programs in the WRC were Elite Programs heading into 2018.
  • All 13 Elite Programs are within the top 23 of the WRC.
  • The average Elite Team rank in the CFP era is 13.9.
  • 25 of the 34 Elite Teams in the CFP era were ranked in the top 14.

Conclusions

  • If you want to have legitimate National Championship expectations, you need to be ranked in the top 5 of the WRC.
  • If you want to have hopes of winning the National Championship, you need to be ranked in the top 14 of the WRC.
  • If you want to have Elite Program expectations (field multiple Elite Teams over a short period of years), you need to be ranked in the top 14 of the WRC.
  • If you want to have Elite Program hopes, you need to be ranked in the top 23 of the WRC.
  • If you want to have Elite Team expectations in the CFP era, you need to be ranked in the top 14 of the WRC.
  • If you want to have Elite Team hopes in the CFP era, you need to be ranked in the top 73. The lowest ranked Elite Teams: UCF ’17 (73), Baylor ’14 (38), TCU ’14 (37).